Is Shimao the next Evergrande? New US Tech Blacklists | China Housing Crisis | Chinese Economy

We discuss the Chinese housing Crisis and ask is Shimao Group going to end up like another Evergrande, Chinese economic developments, New US restrictions and blacklists on Chinese technology companies and more #chinaupdate

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China Update provides you guys with the most up to date political, economic, and geostrategic analysis on China – so that you are on top of the world’s number 2 economy. I am originally a lawyer who later studied Chinese foreign policy in Beijing. My videos are based on hundreds of articles, think tank reports, government statements and other resources in English and Chinese every week. The views and analysis are all my own and I make the videos.

00:00 Introduction
00:12 China-US: Financial Blacklists & Export Restrictions
03:06 Situation Worsens
06:41 China Housing Crisis | Shimao Next Evergrande?

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Disclaimer: China Update is not a financial advisory channel. Nothing I say should be taken as investment advice. Please speak to a professional before making any investment decisions. While I take great care in researching everything discussed in my videos, I do not guarantee that all claims are 100% accurate, all claims should be verified by viewers.

#China #evergrande

30 Comments

  1. Eduard Qualls on December 26, 2021 at 1:23 am

    I find that the interwoven dependencies within the CCP economy (not _Chinese_ economy) and its propaganda-based emphasis on infrastructure-building as a means of GDP-hyping are too often overlooked or downplayed. The USD 6+ billion of “local government vehicle” (LGV) debt indicates how deeply provincial and local governments are dependent on their sales of real-estate rights [leases] for the majority of their budgets: as much as 60% for some of them. This LGV debt is twice the CCP’s holding of foreign reserves. (Just provincial-gov’t, high-speed rail is hemorrhaging over USD 100 million a day, while other tofu-dreg infrastructure and housing is failing [from bad design or poor construction] at an accelerated rate.) Also, the R/E companies, as well as the local governments, have loans and bond agreements that have been hidden from the central government and investors, alike.
    Besides all that, the CCP’s vast web of economic dependencies on real estate sales & construction is also underplayed.
    Every R/E project that is not paid for means the construction-contractors and all the material suppliers are not paid (or supplies are just never purchased in the first place). Each of those will be unable to pay (or hire) myriads of workers, exacerbating the CCP’s “flexible employment” unemployment problem; these jobless will then not be able to make payments on housing, cars, food, clothing, _etc._ The CCP is facing the failure of an entire segment of its economy, as the defaults ripple out, magnify each other and the CCP’s 21st Century real-estate, Ponzi-scheme pyramid collapses in upon itself. The CCP’s sudden switch to internal demand as the engine of economic prosperity could not have come at a worse time, or to a worse system. In an economy in which over 600 million consumers earn an average of only USD 140 a month, just how much demand does the CCP expect to force its people into?
    One must also remember that *statistics provided by the CCP are massaged/restated to the CCP’s propaganda-benefit.* But, that iceberg is about to flip over, to expose the sharp crags of its massive underbelly, and those _Titanics_ of foreign investment (like Singapore) can only stand passively on the deck, and watch their funds sink.
    BTW, subscribed and "belled"

  2. Gouku X on December 26, 2021 at 1:23 am

    Wow! From 1K to 2K in about a week I think. Going viral!

  3. John Merlino on December 26, 2021 at 1:26 am

    As we move into 2022, it would be great if you create a table of the property developers in default/restructuring, getting downgraded, etc. You talk about them all but a visual with dollar figures to track them would be great. I think as these companies fall, US Pension Plans, Tether, investment companies (like Blackrock), US EM ETFs, etc are going to be feeling the pain! Just if and when it really effects our economy is hard to know.

  4. Scott Dowle on December 26, 2021 at 1:28 am

    ooga booga amc, ooga booga amc, ooga booga amc

  5. Robert on December 26, 2021 at 1:31 am

    WOW my jaw dropped to to the floor. Thanks very much for the update you’re video’s information are priceless .

  6. Mark W on December 26, 2021 at 1:32 am

    I have a feeling some shockwaves will be felt around the world soon as a result of the financial and health issues in China. Thanks for the update

  7. Gerald Shields on December 26, 2021 at 1:35 am

    @China Update I wonder how the Sinovax vaccine would work against Omicron? Would a Sinovax booster work against it?

  8. L on December 26, 2021 at 1:36 am

    This Chinese CCP created COVID pandemic is set to ravage its home grounds.

  9. Rodd Wayne on December 26, 2021 at 1:42 am

    The World will not be going back to "normal" and I think China is in for a rough time. Cheers from Canada thanks for your work.
    Stay safe eh:)

  10. Joshua Hernandez on December 26, 2021 at 1:44 am

    My buddy in Hangzhou can’t leave his apartment. He’s really seriously thinking about heading back to the UK. I’m from the USA and moved out of China this summer and have no regrets about it. I told him that living in China will never be the same and that all foreigners in China better start realizing that. They seem to think China will go back soon. No way, not going to happen. 1:57 is Guangzhou, I’ve been there once.

  11. MiceRice on December 26, 2021 at 1:46 am

    The real estate failures all seem so obvious looking backwards. I miss walking the small streets of China’s old towns and wonder if I ever will again. Time to put another log on the fire in my mountain hideaway in Colorado. Thank you for your good work!

  12. Gilby Dog on December 26, 2021 at 1:47 am

    Great China content and analysis.

  13. KTG on December 26, 2021 at 1:49 am

    So glad this has started happening. I have been talking to people about China for years and falling on deaf years. Say what you want about Trump, you’re prob right, but the one thing he did was finally raise awareness about getting tough on China. Its obvious that his opponents finally feel the same way.

    I use ‘China’ loosely. I spent two years of my childhood living in Hong Kong, and was there a few years ago on a visit. I always loved it, and when I moved back to the US I felt more asian than I did American, mostly due to the influence of Hong Kong. I appreciate Chinese culture, food, history, but I hate the CCP and other governments like it. Lets not forget what this government did to its own people during the Great Leap Foward and the Cultural Revolution. They have killed millions of their own people and yet still have Mao on their currency. How anyone feels they will treat non-chinese any better than the Uyghurs or Tibetans (Hey remember them???) are really living in a void. This is a terrible regime and unfortunately will not leave power until a massive revolution takes place. And the CCP knows this, which is why it has such massive controls on their own people. They fear their own people more than anything. When their housing market collapses and if food prices skyrocket for a long enough period the CCP will be in serious trouble. If people in urban areas lose their jobs en mass it will be over. Most Chinese revolutions have been labor driven. So while a bleak future, I don’t see any other way for the world to be rid of that evil regime.

    So get the popcorn ready. The great unravelling has begun.

  14. Sw Lai on December 26, 2021 at 1:49 am

    Precisely, the low efficacy of Chinese Vaccines aganist Omircon Variant, does not permit the CCP to open its borders to international travels… lest tens of millions of Chinese Citizens would be infected and dying from the disease.

  15. Gerald Shields on December 26, 2021 at 1:51 am

    Cool. Why give China the hammer where they in turn can use the hammer to hit US?

  16. Rick Rotondo on December 26, 2021 at 1:52 am

    Another great overview. I would like to hear your thoughts on if Singapore’s thesis on the CCP coming to the rescue of these companies is likely and or what would change their minds to do so. Re: protests, exchange rates, inflation etc. what would trigger them to reverse course a bit… or a lot? Thanks again and congrats on your sub growth.

  17. Andy .P on December 26, 2021 at 1:56 am

    You sound knackered! Christmas plan Tony, Going to be going round your neighbourhood singing Christmas carols?

  18. misterbacon on December 26, 2021 at 1:58 am

    Wow, I did not hear anything about the USA trade restrictions! Good info!

  19. Leshic on December 26, 2021 at 2:01 am

    2:00 – This is interesting news. I always thought there was a technology restriction is selling them semiconductor equipment, but as technology improves, yesterday’s cutting edge, is today’s low end… I always assumed, and likely could be wrong, that what’s defined as "high-tech" naturally migrated, but maybe they’re only good for xx years, and need another new rule regularly written?
    I say this because I worked for AMAT – Applied Materials, for ~15yrs.
    In the early 2000s, George Bush years, I worked for AMAT and was responsible for Chinese clients for a few years.
    Back then, we had a technology export restriction (now, that’s ~20yrs ago). I specifically remember we had to wait to ship out equipment, because we needed representatives from the Department Of Defense to review it 1st, because of the Export Restriction.
    This was for SMIC, which we phonically called smick.
    I haven’t been following the technology restriction rules, but it only makes sense that new rules need to regularly be written for the new, latest cutting edge technology.
    It was Applied Materials, where in 2008’ish, they locked out USA employees who where Chinese nationals, from sensitive servers with IP technology.
    Back then and for >10yrs before that, it was obvious that Chinese were trying to steal technology designs.
    Theft has happened for so long, these export restrictions need to be in place.

    It was never made public, but I remember in the early 2000s, AMAT Applied Materials, was reviewing a site in China for manufacturing some components for their machines.
    The idea was eventually canceled and never happened.
    5-10yrs later, they have to lock out Chinese employees.
    It was so obvious at the time, it’s impossible that AMAT was the only one and the only industry doing it, but with the amount of theft, it’s clear many DIDN’T.
    There’s no doubt in my mind, that things were also stolen for Huawei, SMIC, and their space program (from NASA’s suppliers).
    It happens enough, on it’s own, in the USA, with other USA companies, when there are USA penalties.

  20. Michael Hammond on December 26, 2021 at 2:06 am

    It is very probable that the government will take over any developer that is going under which will increase the government debt massively and create runaway inflation

  21. Never Mind on December 26, 2021 at 2:10 am

    Spent almost 20 years in China, dont see going back anytime soon, nor do I want if things are moving in this direction. Glad this is one of the few channels that actually made a decent effort to pronounce the Chinese names correct 😀

  22. #NoRush #ATLIFE on December 26, 2021 at 2:11 am

    What major US companies are investing in Evergrande? #Blackrock

  23. RandomAussieGuy87 on December 26, 2021 at 2:11 am

    Congrats on 2k subs, Tony!

  24. Sw Lai on December 26, 2021 at 2:12 am

    Indeed, there may still be good remaining opportunities to invest in China real estates & Properties, however, in these days, the opportunities can be compared, to oneself walking along Wall Street, NYC, and be able to find a genuine US$100 bill note lying on the roadside, unpicked.

  25. Luke hua on December 26, 2021 at 2:13 am

    Japan extends its entry ban on foreigners. S. Korea gives up coexisting with the virus. Top Chinese health experts Zhong and Zhang strongly support zero covid. No Chance to ease border restriction until next summer, even later.

  26. Steve Mann on December 26, 2021 at 2:14 am
  27. Stephen Rayner on December 26, 2021 at 2:14 am

    Channel growth looking mighty healthy! 2.2k 😉 gratz bro

  28. Jack Frost on December 26, 2021 at 2:15 am

    Thanks Tony, good stuff. Cheers

  29. Scott Senkeresty on December 26, 2021 at 2:17 am

    Thanks mate.

  30. First Last on December 26, 2021 at 2:18 am

    Looks like Omicron gets to everyone on earth even if you shut the whole city down. Need to make popcorn.

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